A decade after the UK embarked on a rushed public vote that divided the country and triggered chaos, a advisory comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is equipped.
That is the message from two prominent journalists from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly fraught and seismic public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gain traction rapidly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our region remains very unstable."
New Title Aims to Provoke Discussion
The duo have studied the governmental, economic and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the matter with a tour of lectures that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everyone, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a binary, unclear proposal whose consequences have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extremely split population where the losing side are not reconciled to defeat and the those successful don't know precisely what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say this point is looming, and a group named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the likelihood, making it uncertain if and when there could be a national vote.
Lack of Serious Debate
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has obscured the lack of serious debate, noted McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which could extend past that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. Much has occurred in academia but very few politicians or activists are willing to participate with the basics. As an example, which kind of country would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, no writer endorses unity or the status quo. Both composes two pieces that aim for impartiality in laying out the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, marshalling economic and social statistics, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Discussions encompass flags and symbols, levies, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The objective is to educate and stimulate discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there hasn't quite been a debate," stated O’Toole. "Debate suggests an acknowledgement of the concept that there might be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens say they prefer unity but refuse greater financial contributions or adopting a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to determine what the offer from pro-unification movements is other than just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we love you'," said the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride thinks a referendum in his generation is probable and that it might occur suddenly. "There might be just a mad or a bad or a negligent official who declares: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have reasonable, justified perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will succeed here and the other side will ultimately lose but both parties has got important lessons to learn from the alternative arguments."
Call for Broader Discussion
Westminster needed to participate in the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This involves your state. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish matter."
